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Patterns of Conflict Emergence

PaCE (Patterns of Conflict Emergence) is a five-year European Research Council (ERC) funded project (2022-26), based in the Department of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin.


The project aims to uncover recurring patterns and temporal sequences in the run-up to war and conflict,  and through the use of machine-learning methods, provide tools to forecast interstate and civil wars, with a range of data from financial markets, news articles, diplomatic documents and satellite imagery.

Research Areas

Our Research Team is investigating a wide range of data, exploring financial, migration, protest and climate patterns. Certain indicators may follow a typical path — a motif — prior to conflict events (whether inter- or intra-state). Are the variables associated with conflict chaotic and therefore inherently unpredictable? Using novel methods in social sciences, we search for patterns in the observable actions that international leaders and actors take prior to conflict events, as well as in their perceptions. This will be done at multiple levels of resolution—the minute, the month, the year—and using original data on financial assets, news articles, and diplomatic cables.  

Funding:  This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement no: 101002240). 

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